Can Texas Southern Take Out Prairie View A&M?

Game-night:  3/11/2010

Tip-off:  9:00 pm EST

By Aidan Yarborough

Texas Southern, with their 15 and 15 record, has only played in two regular season games in which wagering was offered.  In the first game in which wagering was offered, the Tigers covered the spread, beating Northern Colorado 66 to 62 as 13 point underdogs.  In the second game in which wagering was offered, Texas Southern didn’t do as well, losing to Jackson State 70 to 67 as 5 point favorites.

Like Texas Southern, Prairie View A&M also played in only 2 games during the regular season where wagering was offered.  Prairie View A&M lost the first game ATS when Jackson State beat them 53 to 52.  Prairie View A&M was a 1 ½ point underdog in that game.  In the second game, the one where Prairie View A&M covered the spread, they beat Alabama State 56 to 55 as 3 point underdogs.

What is going to happen tonight when Texas Southern takes on the Panthers for the right to advance in the SWAC Tournament?  Let’s check out the odds before discussing any further.

Texas Southern Tigers        -3 -110        O 123 ½ -110

Prairie View A&M Panthers    +3 -110    U 123 ½ -110

Believe it or not, there are some historical trends regarding Prairie View A&M.  The trends obviously go back to last season, but they’re still valid trends.

The Panthers are 5 and 0 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight-up loss.

The Panthers are 6 and 0 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog.

The Panthers are 6 and 1 ATS in their last 7 games in which wagering was offered.

The Panthers are 4 and 0 in their last 4 neutral site games.

These are all very strong trends in Prairie View A&M’s favor.  A strong stat in their favor is the fact that they beat Texas Southern 63 to 58 on February 6th.  Prairie View A&M was at home for that game, but they held the Tigers to 15% shooting, 3 out of 20, from behind the arc.

The biggest question in this game is whether or not the Panthers can keep the Tigers from doing better from behind the arc.  Texas Southern is a jump shot team. They rarely, if at all, work the ball into the middle.  They prefer to run their shooters off of screens and launch the ball from the 3-point line.

If Texas Southern gets hot from behind the arc, then they could very well blow-out Prairie View A&M in this game.  Texas Southern has won 3 straight.  They beat Alabama A&M 98 to 57 and Alcorn State 84 to 67.  Their victory over Southern was much closer.  They only won that game by 4 points 66 to 62.

The Tigers made 13 threes against Alabama A&M, 6 threes against Alcorn State out of 14 shots, and 6 threes against Southern out of 20 shots.  See where the trend is here?  If Texas Southern hits their three point shots, and more importantly doesn’t miss too many, they can blow teams like Prairie View A&M out.

I have to believe that they’ll hit their three point shots tonight.  Prairie View A&M isn’t a bad team but Texas Southern has won three games in a row.  They should hit at least 6 three pointers in tonight’s game.  If they do so, then they will not only beat Prairie View A&M but they will also cover the spread.

Pick:  Texas Southern -3