Big East Betting - Marqeutte vs Villanova

Marquette Golden Eagles (21-10 SU, 16-9 ATS) vs. Villanova Wildcats (24-6 SU, 18-11 ATS)

Big East Tournament @ New York 
Thursday, March 11 - 2 PM ET

By Aidan Yarborough
 
Odds:  VILLANOVA -5 

Here are some of the NCAA basketball betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

* MARQ has covered 12 of its last 17 games

* MARQ has won five of its last six games SU

* MARQ has played four of its last five games UNDER the total

* VILL has covered two of its last seven games

* VILL has won 19 of its last 25 games SU

* VILL has lost four of its last six games SU

* VILL has played 16 of its last 24 games OVER the total

* VILL has played four of its last five games UNDER the total

Marquette comes off a game where they blew a double-digit lead at the half against St. John's, then actually blew it and fell behind in the game. The recovery was made late in the second half, but it was still nip-and-tuck to the wire. Lazar Hayward scored 20 points and added nine points for Marquette, which won its eleventh straight game against St. John's. The Golden Eagles, who have hit 45.5% of their shots overall this season, sank 10 of 18 three-pointers, pushing their percentage over 40% from beyond the arc. 

Villanova has shot 46.3% this season, and the Wildcats have been near the top of the rankings for most of the season. But they slumped late, and losing four of their last six games, and that brought up questions as to whether this team may have peaked a little too early. That's a question that still has to be asked, especially after they barely showed up in the Carrier Dome for an 18-point blowout loss on February 27 and a season-ending defeat at home against West Virginia. 

Here are some of the head-to-head NCAA basketball betting trends for this game: 

* MARQ has covered seven of the last nine meetings

* VILL has won the last four meetings SU

* Six of the last seven meetings have gone OVER the total

* VILL has had the shooting edge in each of the last four meetings

* MARQ has made more three-pointers in five of the last six meetings
 

We all know how good Villanova can be when it comes to their backcourt play. Scottie Reynolds obviously leads this team with an 18.6 ppg average. He is complemented nicely by Corey Fisher (13.6 ppg) as well as some rested reserves that fill out a very deep team. Antonio Pena is the guy who provides inside strength for the Wildcats, and he is going to have something of a size advantage over his counterpart, Hayward. But Marquette's guards do a great job of getting into the lane and penetrating, and that is the challenge for the Villanova guards here. 

The Eagles are just going to be in close games. Twelve of Marquette's last 19 conference games have been decided by three points or less. Aside from a 21-point win over Louisville, this team has been involved in wins of two points and one point over St. John's, one point over Seton Hall, and a three-point loss to Notre Dame among its last five.

The games they have played against Villanova have been no exception. Even though the Wildcats have won the last four meetings, the last three have been decided by a TOTAL of five points. Suffice it to say that Marquette doe snot let games get out of hand, even against more talented opponents, and that is a tribute to coach Buzz Williams. 

Villanova unquestionably has an advantage in that it has rested, and we wouldn't go so far as to say Marquette is on a roll right now. But the Eagles can;t be counted out of any ball game, and in a situation like this you want to take any points available, as we will with Marquette, the five-point underdog in the NCAA basketball betting odds. 

AIDANS PLAY:   MARQUETTE +5 ***

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)