College Hoops Weekend Picks

‘Nova Travels to D.C. to Take on Georgetown and Michigan State Battles Illinois in Top Weekend Games

By Aidan Yarborough

Like the NBA, college basketball has a full slate of games on Saturday. The biggest game pits the #2 ranked Villanova Wildcats against the #8 Georgetown Hoyas.  Then on Saturday night the Tom Izzo coached Michigan State Spartans battle the Illinois Illini. 

I’m going to have action on both of those games this Saturday.

#2 Villanova Wildcats vs. #8 Georgetown Hoyas

Game-day: 2/6/2010

Tip-off:  12:00 pm EST

Expected NCAAB Odds:  Georgetown -2 ½, Total 153

Analysis:  These two teams just met on January 17th with Villanova beating Georgetown 82 to 77.  The Wildcats barely covered the 4 ½ spread by ½ a point in that game.

‘Nova will be underdogs versus Georgetown on Saturday and, in my opinion, they should cover the spread.  I believe that the Wildcats cover the spread up to 2 ½ point favoritism in this game. Villanova is better than Georgetown.  It doesn’t matter where the two teams meet.  At 15-5-1 ATS overall and 4 and 2 ATS on the road, they’re better than the Hoyas.

They’re better straight-up at 20 and 1.  Why are they better?  Scottie Reynolds and Corey Fisher.  ‘Nova’s two best guards can control a game as well as any pair of guards in college basketball.  Reynolds averages over 18 points per game.  Fisher averages over 4 assists per game.

The Hoyas have nobody who can handle both Reynolds and Fisher.  But what about the Hoyas’ home court advantage, you ask?  Georgetown has no home court advantage.  Even though the Hoyas beat Duke at home 89 to 77, they also lost to South Florida at home 72 to 64.  Georgetown is only 4 and 5 ATS at home.

Villanova has covered spreads on the road against Marquette, Louisville, Rutgers and St. John’s.  I believe that cover another spread against a Big East road team on Saturday when they travel to D.C. to take on Georgetown.

I’m all over the Wildcats.

Pick:  Wildcats up to +2 ½ or less

#5 Michigan State Spartans vs. Illinois Fighting Illini

Game-night:  2/6/2010

Tip-off:  9:00 pm EST

Expected NCAAB Odds:  Michigan State -5 ½, Total 136

Analysis:  The #5 ranked Michigan State Spartans had been as good as advertised up until their last game, a 67 to 49 loss to the Wisconsin Badgers.  What the heck happened there?  Defense.  Wisconsin played it and Michigan State did not.

Things should be easier for the Spartans on Saturday when they battle the Illinois Illini.  The last time the two teams met the Spartans beat Illinois 73 to 63 as 11 ½ point favorites.  MSU didn’t cover the spread in that game.  Overall, MSU is 8 and 14 ATS.  They’re 3 and 5 ATS on the road.

Illinois isn’t as good of a team as Michigan State but they have put together 3 victories in a row.  They are only 4 and 7 ATS at home, however, which makes picking the winner against the spread in this game very, very tough.

I have to believe that Coach Tom Izzo really got into his team after that disgusting loss to Wisconsin.  Point guard Kalin Lucas, who is questionable for Saturday’s matchup, averages 15.6 points and 4 assists per game.

My gut tells me that Lucas will play.  If he does, the Spartans should be able to cover the spread because there’s no doubt in my mind that it will be less than the 11 ½ that it was the last time these two teams met.

I’ll cross my fingers regarding Lucas and back the Spartans in this one.

Pick:  Spartans at -5 ½ or less